So does the Paris-based company expects capacity demand to be multiplied by a factor of 13. Capacity revenues will be increased from $10.2 billion in 2021 to $22.4 billion in 2031, it said, despite falling capacity prices.

Service income

In terms of satellite service revenue, he says we are likely to see an “explosion” of revenue to the tune of a cumulative $1.2 trillion by 2031. He predicts that the share of data applications will increase from 15% of the total market revenue up to 42% by 2031 2031

“Decreasing average revenue per user (ARPU) and fierce competition in the market are the main drivers for changes in strategies, with operators forced to look for additional revenues to avoid the commodity price trap. Their sights are increasingly on a new revenue stream – services – that will grow from $108 billion to $124 billion within 10 years, with all the growth coming from data services.”

“The shift to data-driven revenue streams can also be seen in the downward trend in video revenue, with the projected loss of 26 million direct-to-home (DTH) subscribers and 8,500 satellite TV channels by 2031. viewing will contribute to the growing shift from linear viewing to Over-the-Top (OTT) services, which will negatively impact the satellite video market in the coming years.”

NGSO

Euroconsult also highlights the disruptive effect of satellites in non-geostationary orbit (NGSO).


“The rapidly growing importance of NGSOs in the connectivity markets is having a strong impact on the FSS industry, with an increasing number of players looking to a multi-orbital strategy to expand their business, as highlighted by the recently announced merger of Eutelsat with OneWeb and the efforts of several Operators of the FSS to create a European constellation of NGSOs.’

The chart above shows capacity revenue and service revenue for both data and video.

“However,” the company notes, “COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine have not spared the FSS (Fixed Satellite Services) industry, with supply chain issues due to microprocessor shortages and production difficulties delaying a significant number of satellites. The global inflationary crisis has also driven up satellite prices, most visibly affecting NGSO constellations such as Telesat’s Lightspeed, which has been forced to downsize.”

“Despite these short-term setbacks, the industry is expected to see capacity revenue growth of 5% year-on-year in 2022, with subsequent launches of new constellations and large satellites in the coming years likely to start the growth period by opening the floodgates for new capacity.”

See also: Government budgets for space exploration and militarization reach record levels


Euroconsult sizes growing satellite connectivity market