MOBILE, Alabama (WKRG) – The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season could start another early start.
Forecast models show and continue to show a higher-level depression (low pressure) moving in the West Atlantic over Mother’s Day weekend. It is predicted that this feature will be cut off from the main stream and slowly meandering west of Bermuda. As this system is located over the slightly warm Atlantic Ocean, this feature may begin to acquire subtropical characteristics. The US GFS model is pushing this system to the west, approaching the Southeastern United States late next week. This feature could increase the humidity on the Gulf Coast enough to cause little chance of rain by the end of next week.
Although there is a high degree of uncertainty in this scenario, storms that form before the official start of hurricane season are not uncommon. In fact, tropical activity before the season has become the norm in recent years. In eight of the last nine years, the first storm of the Atlantic hurricane season formed before June 1. This led the National Hurricane Center to postpone the start of its first tropical discussions to May 15. Although there has been some discussion about moving the official start date to hurricane season, for now the first day remains June 1st.