Although 2022 will not be a disaster, 2023 will be, Penn said.
This year the growth forecast is + 6%. + 10% is still possible, but + 4%.
“The delay is inevitable, its scale depends on the weather, “Penn said,” unit shipments will drop first, then ASP will collapse. “
Next year, the market becomes negative, predicts Penn.
“The 17th fuse of the reduced-cycle industry is already on fire due to the collapse of the chip market, combined with a global economic downturn,” Penn said.
In 2023, Q1 will decrease -10%; Q2 will decrease -8%; Q3 will decrease -4%; Q4 will fall by -2.5%. The whole year will decrease -22%.
Cycles are endemic due to a lack of cooperation between suppliers and consumers.
“Customers are always wrong in their predictions – they are worse than the semiconductor industry,” Penn said.
Unstable forecasting on both sides of the industry leads to a constant imbalance between supply and demand.
“Industry cycles are driven by the imbalance of supply and demand, not the market,” Penn said, “and the only way to compare them is for the supplier and customer to share responsibility for building future capacity. Nobody wants that. ”
However, Penn said, system companies should be willing to pay more for capacity, because while semiconductor companies receive $ 9 per square centimeter of silicon, system companies receive $ 45 per square centimeter.
However, “no one is willing to intervene and invest in the chip industry,” Penn said.
Apple is the only system company willing to invest in great capacity through its understanding with TSMC, Penn said, and even that relationship has its limits.
So there is nothing to change the traditional cycle.