The osteoarthritis (OA) market was valued at USD 2.5 billion in 7MM (seven major markets) in 2021 and is expected to grow to USD 3.8 billion in 2031 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4%. The major growth drivers of the OA market during the forecast period include the launch of new biologic therapies as well as the launch of drugs with novel mechanisms of action (MOA) and disease-modifying effects. Two categories of new therapies stand out: cell therapies and therapies with new MOAs, with new products in each category projected to be launched between 2023 and 2025. These are projected to contribute significantly to the OA market sales in 2031, which accounting for 10% and 14.2% of 7MM sales, respectively.
The OA space has long been dominated by large pharmaceutical companies such as Bayer, Pfizerand Eli Lilly. This is largely due to the current standards of care (SOC) in OA, which focus on symptom management, and as such the market consists primarily of generic pain therapies, including non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), opioids, antidepressants and intra-articular (IA) injections.
However, the late pipeline is seeing new companies enter the space, with intense competition for patient share driving innovation. As such, analgesics with innovative MOAs—including anti-nerve growth factors (anti-NGFs; fasinumab), an IA formulation of capsaicin (CNTX-4975), and new improved formulations of marketed therapies (X-0002)—continue to be investigated. in clinical trials. In total, eight new product launches are predicted in the OA market by 2031.
In addition, the OA market requires new DMOAD (disease-modifying OA drug) therapies to address the current unmet needs of OA patients. As a result, several significant therapies can be found in the current OA pipeline: the cell-based therapy Invossa, developed by Column tissue gene and Organogenesis Holdings‘s ReNu; as well as Biosplice Therapeuticslorecivivint, a small molecule therapy.
The growth of the OA market is also strongly driven by the overall growing patient population, with a 12.3% increase in the number of patients receiving treatment from 2021 to 2031. An aging population is expected to contribute to the overall increase in the number of patients and ultimately, the number of patients receiving treatment. However, the most notable factor limiting the growth of the OA market is the lack of growth in established pain market classes, and in particular the growth of topical capsaicin (CAGR 0.7% in the US) and opioids (CAGR 1, 0% in the US).
Therefore, growth expectations for the overall OA market (7MM) remain modest at a CAGR of 4.4% despite the launch of several new therapies during the forecast period as well as overall growth in the patient population.