It doesn’t matter how many Vision Pro headphones Apple sells

Earlier this week, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo noted for headphones, claiming production had been cut to 400,000 or 450,000 units compared to a previous market consensus of north of 700,000. This followed a related report from of Bloomberg Mark German, who said in his that demand for Vision Pro demos has “waned” while sales have slowed significantly in some locations.

Naturally, this caused a lot of panic and hand-wringing among Apple enthusiasts, who feared that the headset that was supposed to change VR forever might not have the durability they expected. However, before anyone else starts clutching their pearls, I want to let you in on a secret: it doesn’t really matter how many headphones Apple sells.

First, let’s talk production numbers. Is it 400,000 or 800,000 or something in between? Back in January, the same Ming-Chi Kuo estimated that the company sold between 160,000 and 180,000 units during its , which is from from about 60,000 to 80,000. But if we go back even further to last July, cited two people who said Apple only asked its supplier to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, while other sources put the number closer to 150,000. Now, obviously, the numbers are subject to change over time of time as Apple responds to feedback and interest from developers and the public. Nevertheless, trying to predict the exact number of devices that will be made is extremely difficult, especially for an attention-grabbing and innovative product that has been the subject of rumors dating back to (and even before that, according to some ).

Still, let’s take that number of 400,000 and see where it goes. Not factoring in accessories (some of which are very important, especially if the owner wears glasses), the Vision Pro retails for $3,500. Rough napkin math suggests Apple expects about $1.4 billion in sales. That’s a pretty big number, and for many other companies it would represent a landmark year. But this is Apple we’re talking about – it won . And that was considered a down year. So we’re talking about less than one percent of the company’s total revenue, which is actually a rounding error on Apple’s finances.

That figure looks even less impressive when you consider all the research and development that went into creating the Vision Pro. Apple is always sneaky when it comes to revealing how much money it invests in various departments. But if we look at another major player in VR, Meta, we can get a better idea of ​​what Apple’s VR budget might look like. According to Business Insiderbased on an analysis of regulatory findings, since early 2019. That’s a big chunk of change, and more than enough to cause some consternation among investors, with Meta stock

But all these numbers are just noise. Analysts like to look at these things to predict company growth, although they’re so busy focusing on quarterly numbers that they often miss the bigger picture. Depending on who you ask, Apple has than any other company in the world, with over $165 billion sitting in a bank somewhere. And with recent reports claiming Apple has, I’d say the company might want to redouble its efforts on headphones.

That’s because the Vision Pro could be the first step toward a platform that could change the company’s entire trajectory, the way the original iPhone did in 2007. It was clear from the start that Apple’s first phone would have a huge impact. But when people look back, they never cite the first year of iPhone sales, which amounted to only about 1.4 million units. Sure, that’s more than 400,000, but that was also for a significantly cheaper device and a drop in the bucket compared to the HUNDREDS of millions Apple has sold recently. Those numbers were meaningless.

Vision Pro is from Apple Field of dreams a virtual reality device, spatial computing, or whatever you want to call the category that encompasses head-mounted displays. Apple should have created it so that developers would have actual hardware to test the software on. Apple had to create it to have a platform for people to download apps from. (If you’ll recall, the original App Store didn’t arrive until July 2008, more than a year after the OG iPhone went on sale and itself made approx. .) Apple should have built it to put a flag so they don’t completely cede first move advantage to Meta or someone else.

While I’d say the Vision Pro is a glorified developer kit (it was announced at WWDC, after all), there are features that evoke the magical feeling I had the first time I used an iPhone. The Vision Pro has perhaps the best optics I’ve seen on any headset, including enterprise models that cost well over $3,500. It also has the best eye tracking I’ve ever experienced and makes navigating menus and apps incredibly intuitive. It just kind of works. And it’s slowly but surely getting better, as my colleague Devindra noted in his recent post

Just like Apple’s first phone, however, the Vision Pro isn’t without its issues. It is heavy and not very comfortable during long sessions. Its wired battery pack isn’t the most elegant power solution. Its front viewfinder is prone to cracking, typing still feels clunky, and it doesn’t have enough custom apps to make it an essential part of your everyday tech kit. But these are fixable problems, and there’s clearly something there, a basis on which Apple can iterate. Even in its infancy, the Vision Pro brings enough to force hundreds of thousands of people (or developers) to buy a device that doesn’t make much practical sense.

The focus should be on what upgrades or additions Apple might make in the future, not how many units it does (or doesn’t) make. So don’t let analysts or other noisemakers convince you otherwise.

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