IDC: PC market to grow in 2024 thanks to update cycle and AI

The global PC market is showing signs of revival in line with the improving global economic climate. Global PC shipments are expected to reach 265.4 million units in 2024, reflecting a 2.0% year-over-year increase, according to IDC forecasts, which echo forecasts previously made by Canalys.

While suppliers are currently focused on clearing inventories built up in 2023, a year that saw a significant 13.7% drop in shipments compared to 2022 (reaching “only” 252 million units), IDC expects expansion period in 2024. This growth is due to the introduction of AI-powered devices. These will propel the market to 292.2 million units by 2028. Translating to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4% throughout the forecast period (2024-2028).

The PC market is showing signs of recovery, fueled by AI and the economic recovery

IDC predicts that growth will steadily accelerate throughout the year, coinciding with the wider availability of AI-enabled computing. This trend is consistent with the start of the trade upgrade cycle expected in 2025:

“Both businesses and educational institutions are approaching an upgrade cycle that is expected to begin toward the end of this year and peak in 2025. Many of these entities will be among the early adopters of AI-based computing. While the availability of AI features may not necessarily lead to a significant increase in the overall PC user base, it will undoubtedly lead to an increase in average sales prices.

While commercial PCs are expected to contribute the majority of shipments, consumer purchases are also expected to recover, albeit at a more gradual pace. Several factors will contribute to the growth of consumer computing in the coming years. First and foremost, the expected economic recovery will likely coincide with the need to replace many PCs purchased during the initial stages of the pandemic. In addition, gamers and creative professionals will increasingly use the capabilities offered by AI, further driving consumer demand.

In conclusion, the PC market appears to be emerging from a period of stagnation driven by a combination of factors. Including: the global economic recovery, the introduction of AI-powered devices and the start of an upgrade trade cycle. While the rate of growth may be gradual. Especially for consumer purchases, the outlook for the PC market looks cautiously optimistic.